After the culmination of the European clay swing in an amazing final at the French Open, the grass court season began with some of the biggest names in Tennis playing the first two tournaments on grass – Stuttgart and s-Hertogenbosch. The two most popular pre-Wimbledon grass events - Halle and Queen's - were upgraded to ATP500 events this year. The extended grass season is about to reach its climax as the Grand Slam of Grand Slams - Wimbledon - is approaching. In this blog, we try to analyse the performances of the Top 10 contenders in the first 5 grass court tournaments and also predict their odds of winning The Championships.
Novak Djokovic:
Novak usually doesn't play any grass tournament before
Wimbledon. And the same trend continued this year as well. The long rest might
reap in a lot of benefits for him as he will arrive at The Championships more
fresh than anyone else. Moreover, he is participating in the exhibition
tournament 'The Boodles' just before Wimbledon. This will give him good match
practice as players like Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson are also
contesting. Also, keeping in mind the performance of Novak at Wimbledon in the
past 4 years (2014:Winner, 2013:Runner-up, 2012: Semi-finals, 2011:Winner) as
well his current form (41-3 in 2015), he is overwhelmingly the favourite for
the Wimbledon title. Moreover, after his defeat at the French Open final, he will
be highly motivated to win the title at Wimbledon.
Roger Federer:
Roger Federer is undoubtedly the greatest player of all time
on grass. He has 15 titles on grass, including 7 Wimbledon crowns (a record
shared with Pete Sampras). He has been in good form this season (4 titles) but
has had disappointing losses at big tournaments like Australian Open, Madrid Masters,
etc. But still you can never count Federer out at Wimbledon. Last year, he
silenced all his critics by reaching the final here and playing a classic
five-setter against Djokovic. This time too, he will be high on confidence
after winning his 8th Halle title (becomes only the third player to win a title
8 or more times*).
Federer at Gerry Weber Open, Halle 2015:
Result: Winner
Roger served great in all his matches. His first serve
percentage of 70.3% is not so impressive but he won 83% of his first serve
points. His first serve win percentage varied between 80.8% and 86.5% across
the tournament. However, Federer had a very tough match against Philipp
Kohlschreiber and his second serve was put under extreme pressure as he could
win only 41.9% of his second serves. Also, his return of serve was very decent
as he managed to win 33.3% return points. So, if the first serve of Federer
keeps on firing like it did in Halle, he has a good chance of claiming his 8th
Wimbledon title.
Andy Murray:
Andy Murray has home advantage at Wimbledon which brings out
the best of him. His game on grass is exemplary and he has proved it again by
winning the AEGON Championships, London with a great performance. He has had a
very good season in 2015 till now. He finally had his breakthrough on clay by
winning his first title on the surface. But clay and grass are completely
different surfaces and the transition requires you to make huge adjustments in
your game in a very short time. Let's see if Andy has been able to synchronize
his game to the grass.
Murray at AEGON Championships, Queen's Club, London 2015:
Result: Winner
Andy Murray’s fourth title at the Queen’s Club shows how
strong a player he is on grass. But there were several sore points for Andy
like a very inconsistent first serve. His first serve percentage varied between
55.9% to 78.7% while his first serve win percentage varied between 71.1% to
89.7%. This can be extremely dangerous against players like Djokovic, Federer,
Nadal or Wawrinka who can put a lot of pressure on your second serve. So, the
first serve needs to fire consistently specially on grass. However, Andy
managed to do really well on his second serve by winning 57.0% of his second
serve points compared to his opponents’ 32.5%. Also, he won 36.9% of his return
points which is pretty good. So, Andy must improve his first serve if he wants
to win Wimbledon.
Stan Wawrinka:
Very few people expected Stan to win another slam after the
Australian Open. Most thought of him as a fluke. But he proved his critics
wrong with a stellar performance at the French Open, especially in his matches
against Federer (Quarterfinals) and Novak Djokovic (Final). There is a heated
debate going on about his inclusion in the Big4 and expand the elite league to
The Fab Five. Stan is very high on confidence and his last year's performance
(lost a closely fought quarterfinal to Federer) at Wimbledon must have him
hungry for more.
Wawrinka at AEGON Championships, Queen's Club, London 2015:
Result: Lost in R16 to Kevin Anderson
Stan’s result in the tournament looks not so promising. And
as we said in our first blog about French Open that Stan’s first serve
percentage could be a problem, it is still a big issue. His first serve
percentage of 60.3% is hardly adequate for winning a tournament on grass. Also,
his return game against Kevin Anderson was not good as he could win only 23.8%
of return points in that match. So, the only way Stan can win Wimbledon is by
playing the way he played in the final of the French Open. He will have to
improve his first serve.
 |
| First serve percentage (violet) and First serve points won (Green) for Federer, Murray and Wawrinka |
Rafael Nadal:
Nadal has had a very poor start to the year. For the first time in the last decade, he could not win a single title during the European Clay swing. His performance on grass has been very poor over the last 3 years. To improve his game on grass he played an extra tournament on the surface this year in Stuttgart and to everyone's surprise, won it. Now, after his first round loss at Queen's Club, he is also contesting in 'The Boodles' tournament. This clearly shows that he is determined to win another Wimbledon title.
Nadal at Mercedes Cup, Stuttgart 2015:
Result: Winner
Nadal at AEGON Championships, Queen's Club, London 2015:
Result: Lost in R32 to Alexandr Dolgopolov
Although Nadal won the Stuttgart title, his performance was hardly satisfactory. He won 78.2% of his first serve points in Stuttgart and this dropped to 64.7% in Queen's Club. This is very poor on a grass court. Overall, he won only 69.7% of his service points which should be a point of concern for Rafa. Due to his low seeding, he might have to go through some really tough matches very early in Wimbledon. If Rafa has to go deep into the draw, he must step up his first serve.
Tomas Berdych:
Tomas Berdych has always been a consistent threat to the Big 4. He is one of the only three (Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Stan Wawrinka are the other two) players to have beaten all of the Big 4 in Grand Slam tournaments. He was the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2010 (lost to Nadal) and his current form is signalling towards a good performance at The Championships.
Berdych at Gerry Weber Open, Halle 2015:
Result: Lost in QF to Ivo Karlovic
Berdych was playing really good until he came up against Karlovic's ace missiles. He had won 85.2% of his first serve points before meeting Karlovic. His return game was also decent as he won 43% of his return points. But his world turned upside down in his match against Karlovic. Berdych could just watch in amazement as Karlovic fired 45** aces. His return points win percentage dropped to just 21.4% in that match. So, Berdych will need to find a solution to these aces or he can again fall prey to one of the big servers.
Others:
The performance of other top 10 players was not encouraging in the pre-Wimbledon grass tournaments as none of them could even reach the final of any tournament. Kei Nishikori was playing good at Halle but he had to retire in his semifinal match against Andreas Seppi due to an injury. We hope he gets well before Wimbledon. Other players like Cilic, Raonic, Ferrer, Dimitrov had very disappointing early losses.
So, Novak Djokovic appears to be the favourite at The Championships. Other than him only Roger Federer or Andy Murray are looking in good form to lift the Wimbledon trophy. We will come with more analysis and update our prediction before the semifinals of Wimbledon. Stay tuned.
* Only Rafael Nadal has won more - 9 titles at French Open
** Record for most aces hit in a best of three sets match
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